This paper is a response to the literature that tests for cointegration between national stock market indices. It argues that apparent findings of cointegration in other studies may often be due to the use of asymptotic, rather than small-sample, critical values. In fact, economic theory suggests that cointegration is unlikely to be observed in efficient markets. However, this paper finds some evidence for the long-horizon predictability of relative returns, and the existence of awinner-losera reversals across 16 national equity markets. A conclusion is that national stock market indices include a common world component and two country-specific components, one permanent and one transitory.Testing for awinner-losera effects across national stock markets A related approach for testing predictability in relative returns is to simulate the performance of a trading rule based on the awinner-losera effect. A number of researchers, anbsp;...
Title | : | Comovements in National Stock Market Returns |
Author | : | Mr. Anthony J. Richards |
Publisher | : | International Monetary Fund - 1996-04-01 |
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